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Table 4 Errors in Estimating Changes in Saving via Installment Debt with Equation (3)* with Particular Reference to Periods of Significant Short-run Change, 1953-72. (millions of current dollars) |
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|
Year |
Reported** |
Estimated*** |
Error |
Comment**** |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1953 |
$+ 507 |
$+1,203 |
$+ 702 |
|
|
1954 |
+3,039 |
+3,001 |
- 38 |
Recession |
|
1955 |
- 4,775 |
- 4,768 |
+ 7 |
Recovery |
|
1956 |
+2,524 |
+1,876 |
- 648 |
|
|
1957 |
+ 666 |
+1,503 |
+ 837 |
|
|
1958 |
+2,374 |
+2,289 |
- 85 |
Recession |
|
1959 |
- 5,831 |
- 5,210 |
+ 621 |
Recovery |
|
1960 |
+1,884 |
+ 848 |
- 1,036 |
|
|
1961 |
+2,798 |
+3,725 |
+ 927 |
Recession |
|
1962 |
- 3,906 |
- 4,428 |
- 522 |
Recovery |
|
1963 |
- 1,937 |
- 2,801 |
- 864 |
|
|
1964 |
- 440 |
+ 129 |
+ 569 |
|
|
1965 |
- 955 |
- 501 |
+ 494 |
|
|
1966 |
+2,849 |
+2,242 |
- 607 |
|
|
1967 |
+2,169 |
+1,161 |
-1,008 |
Recession (Mini) |
|
1968 |
- 5,135 |
- 5,706 |
- 572 |
Recovery |
|
1969 |
- 1,043 |
- 388 |
+ 655 |
|
|
1970 |
+4,401 |
+5,516 |
+1,115 |
Recession |
|
1971 |
- 4,292 |
- 4,025 |
+ 24 7 |
Recovery |
|
1972 |
- 6,806 |
- 7,398 |
- 592 |
Recovery |
|
Summary Periods |
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(2) %
|
|
All Years
|
$2,917
|
$607
|
20.8%
|
|
Recessions and Recoveries
|
4,139
|
549
|
13.3
|
|
Recessions
|
2,956
|
635
|
21.5
|
Recoveries
|
5,124
|
410
|
8.0
|
|
Other Years
|
1,423
|
712
|
50.0 | |||||||||||||||
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* Results of using equation (6) rather than(3)are identical except for rounding errors. ** From Federal Reserve Bulletin, (various). These data are adjusted for revisions in the Bulletin, October, 1972. *** Estimates with equations (1) or (3) with sign reversed. **** This classification is somewhat arbitrary. The pattern is more evident in quarterly data. For results of fit of model to quarter@ data, see Burress, Sept., 1964. Further work on quarterly data is underway, 1972 has been labeled a recovery year in Bulletin, January, 1973. |
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