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Table 3.
Estimates of Selected Values of the
Installment Debt Variables 1953-72
(millions of current dollars)
| Year | Repayments Estimated with Eq. (2) as % of Actual (k = 3 years) | Neutral Installment Extensions,_*E Measured with Eq. (5). | Predetermined Stimulant (-) or Restraint (+) = PD_SI (t)with - Eq. (7) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1953 | 100.90% | $3,978 Recession | $829 |
| 1954 | 100.7 | 3,991 Recession | 9 |
| 1955 | 100.7 | 769 Recovery | -2,148 |
| 1956 | 98.9 | 3,707 | 1,959 |
| 1957 | 101 | 4,408 | 467 |
| 1958 | 100.8 | 1,524 Recession | -1,923 |
| 1959 | 101.9 | 122 Recovery | -935 |
| 1960 | 99.8 | 3,015 | 1,929 |
| 1961 | 101.7 | 4,842 | 1,218 |
| 1962 | 100.6 | 500 Recovery | -2,895 |
| 1963 | 99 | 3,199 | 1,799 |
| 1964 | 100 | 7,272 | 2,715 |
| 1965 | 100.3 | 7,240 | -21 |
| 1966 | 99.9 | 7,520 Mini: | 187 |
| 1967 | 98.7 | 6,081 Recession | -959 |
| 1968 | 98.2 | 4,255 Recovery | -1,217 |
| 1969 | 99 | 8,576 | 2,881 |
| 1970 | 100 | 10,988 Recession | 1,608 |
| 1971 | 100.1 | *6,087 Recovery | -3,269 |
| 1972 | 99.6 | 7,568 Recovery | 988 |
| 1973 | 15,397 | 5,220 | |
| **1974 | 20.7 to 22.1 | +3.6 to +4.5 | |
For the 1971 recovery _*E was not as depressed, and therefore, stimulant measured through PD_SI not as great as in previous recoveries because, when viewed through the behavior of extensions, the 1970 recession was not as severe. If extensions in 1970 had fallen by the same percentage as in 1958 (-4.5%), _*E value would have been reduced two-thirds to $2,125. If 1970 extensions had fallen by the same percentage as 1961 (-1.5%), this value would have been cut almost in half to $3,762. Extensions in 1970 increased 2.9%. The cyclical pattern is more clearly defined in quarterly data. Results of the quarterly model were published in part by Burress in 1964 and are being updated.
** Higher figure assumes relative increase in extensions for calendar year 1973 equals relative increase if first eight months over one year earlier, 17.9 per cent. Lower figure, which seems more probable in October, 1973, assumes increase in final four months of 1973 over same months of 1972 will be 11.0%
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